News from the New Party

In the Brown stuff

The then Political Editor of The Times (Robin Oakley) duly reported the next day that if this switch in sentiment “were to be repeated nationally at the next election, every single member of Mrs Margaret Thatcher’s Cabinet save John Major, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, would lose his seat”.

This did not happen. Far from it. Despite a continuing economic malaise, ministers won a surprise fourth term in office (recapturing Mid-Staffordshire as they did) in part because voters remained to be fully convinced that the Opposition had changed sufficiently. The Tories did, however, have to dump their leader in order to find salvation. No crumb of comfort there for Mr Brown.

If he voluntarily stepped aside in the next few weeks and a new leader had time to establish themselves, you can make a coherent argument for them being able to turn around Labour fortunes, except for one thing. It is inconceivable that the British public, let alone the press, would accept a second unelected Prime Minister within a year.

There is also no clear frontrunner to take over. The only two people I can see actually having a chance of success would either not run or not win - and I'm talking about Alan Johnson and Hilary Benn.

In the second scenario, where Gordon Brown is ditched, the mess which would be created along the way would render the party unelectable afterwards - no matter who emerged. And with the same electoral college system which allowed Harriet Harman to win the Deputy Leadership, you have to wonder just who might emerge from that process.

Labour's best chance is to stick with Brown in the hope that he will be able to pull a rabbit out of the bag. But with his luck, any such rabbit would probably be struck down with myxomatosis.