News from the New Party

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

Stalemate for Democrats as McCain marches on

Yesterday's mammoth Super Tuesday primary election in the United States has clearly established John McCain as the odds-on favourite to be the Republican nominee for this November's presidential election, while the two remaining competitors for the Democratic candidacy fought each other to a dead heat.

John McCain's victories from coast to coast - with the biggest prize of California and also New York among several other north eastern states - have given him a huge lead, though not quite an unassailable one, in the delegate count for the Republican convention. His chief rival, Mitt Romney, scored large victories in Utah - a predominantly Mormon state voting for a Mormon candidate, and Massachusetts, where Romney served one term as governor, and several other smaller states. However, the surprise victory of Mike Huckabee in several southern states, in some cases helped by tactical voting by Mccain supporters. has done Romney severe damage. With talk now of Huckabee as a possible vice-presidential candidate for McCain, the Romney campaign is increasingly marginalised and subdued.

On the Democratic side, while Hillary Clinton pulled off important victories in some of the larger, delegate heavy states, Barack Obama actually won in more states, so that in terms of the delegate race the two candidates are neck and neck. Although upcoming primaries may favour Obama, Clinton can expect to rely on greater support from the so-called "super-delegates", the senior party members who are ex-officio delegates and not mandated by the voters. There is increasing alarm among Democrats that the race for the nomination may go all the way to the convention at Denver in August - with the concern that a protracted struggle may lead to division and bad feeling within the party which may only be exacerbated if the super-delegates swing the nomination in favour of Senator Clinton - which would represent an effective coup by the Democratic party apparatchiks over the wishes of the Democratic voters.

There is, then, still all to play for in this election campaign. Although the Democrats face a long and bruising campaign ahead, John McCain nevertheless faces his own problems: a substantial tranche of the Republican party regards McCain as dangerously "liberal" (in American terms), and although this difficulty is to some extent mitigated by the cordial relationship between McCain and the former pastor Mike Huckabee, some bad feeling still exists among Romney's supporters on this account. With the Democratic Party still favourites to win in November, much will depend on McCain's ability to rally the GOP behind him quickly in order to capitalise on the lengthy battle still being played out between Senators Clinton and Obama.

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Stalemate for Democrats as McCain marches on